Tag: politics

This is a story about destiny…

Do you trust exit polls? What do you think about the predictions made by political commentators, newspapers, TV stations? Why is the UK’s vote on membership of the European Union different?

Well, let’s dig into my predictions, and why I think what I do:

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1. Brexit is going to win

What the heck? All the polls say that Brexit is behind. All the bets seem to be backing a vote to remain in the EU. The currency markets seem to be predicting that Britain will vote to stay a member of the European Union.

However, the vociferous liberal press has shouted down the ordinary person with loud cries of “BIGOT!” every time  somebody suggests that the UK should go it alone. Brexit has become synonymous with closet racism… and that’s exactly where the average voter has retreated to… the closet.

There’s a fear of sharing your far-right views, because people know it’s wrong to bash immigrants and brown people in general, but with the anonymity of the ballot box, things are going to be a different story. The fact of the matter is that there has been a massive upswell of racist sentiment since the economy went belly-up, and the patronising voices of the liberal elite have only further angered the general public.

The people who are going to vote Brexit are the ones who have gone quiet. They are biding their time, just waiting for the time when they can put their little ‘X’ in the box, and stick two fingers up at Johnny Foreigner. They’ve given up arguing that “I’m not racist, but…“.

Racists will never win a battle of wits, but they will win when they’re allowed a free vote, anonymously.

2. We can’t escape our destiny

Did you forget about the crippling debt in Greece, Italy, Spain? People have short memories and attention spans, but we are still suffering the consequences of the credit crunch, which is in turn a result of runaway borrowing. Not borrowing by individuals, but borrowing by governments with spending deficits, and by corporations that are trying to manipulate their tax burden.

The problems have not been fixed, and debt continues to balloon. Austerity and deep cuts have done nothing to plug the holes in an economic rescue plan that is deeply flawed. All that Quantitative Easing has done is to further line the pockets of a handful of wealthy people. There’s no inflation, so the problem is just as bad, if not worse than it was 8 years ago.

Defaults and debt haircuts, write-offs… these are the only options, and distancing ourselves from Greece, Italy, Spain and other European neighbours, is not going to protect us. We’re going down the shitter with them, whether we like it or not.

3. Cameron is ceding control to Bojo

How do you step down, when you have won two general elections back-to-back, and still save face? Well, how’s about having a referendum to placate your predominantly eurosceptic party members, and then you can hand over control to a more popular and likeable leader, in readiness for the campaign for a 3rd term in power.

The macro plan is so painfully obvious.

4. The anticlimax is going to be so depressing

There is real optimism in the Brexit camp, as if destroying unions ever solved problems. There is a kind of delusional belief, that the woes of the country can be solved at a stroke.

Brexit is just the beginning of rebuilding everything that gets smashed, as we cut off our nose to spite our face.

It’s not like we can drive immigrants out of our country with pitchforks on Friday, although I fear violent reprisals, whichever way the vote goes. The country is a tinderbox, just waiting for a single spark.

A vote to leave gives the green-light to yet more immigrant bashing. A vote to remain will result in disappointed bigots taking out their frustration in mob violence, rioting. Do you think Brexiters are just going to say “oh well, back to normal” if the vote doesn’t go their way? In actual fact, it could be terrible, if they feel even more than ever that their voice isn’t heard.

5. Political activation is destabilising

Even though I believe the status quo should not be maintained, having this referendum has brought people into the political process who were otherwise disengaged, disillusioned. However, there isn’t the maturity there to accept that part of democracy is compromise, and with democracy also comes the responsibility to be mature, measured, calm, patient.

I see a kind of national hysteria everywhere I look. The language, the rhetoric, the aggression… it’s appalling. The world looks up to us – to follow our example – as an advanced nation, and as a symbol of democracy. However, we bicker like children, we sulk, we tantrum and call each other names. We descent to the level of the playground. We are not making a fine account of ourselves on the world stage.

By pandering to the ill-educated, ill-informed concerns of the much abused general public, we have turned a serious question about how to lead our world out of economic danger, and sustain prosperity, into a silly game of finger-pointing and tit-for-tat measures, cronyism, cliqueness.

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Whatever result is declared on Friday, I expect that a genie is out of the bottle. There is no finality, no real result. Instead, either I will be living in fear of reprisals by a bitter disaffected group who have been dealt a disappointing blow, if we stay in the EU, or we will accelerate the dissatisfaction that people have in their every day lives, as they realise that voting to leave the EU has made precisely fuck all difference to their prospects and quality of life, and they look for further opportunities to express their frustration.

The world seems a more dangerous place, more filled with hate, less reasonable, less progressive and idealistic, thanks to this stupid debate, and pointless vote.

I pray that the vote is to remain, so at least we are not a laughing stock internationally, and as a nation we look terribly right-wing and bigoted. English football hooligans are already a national disgrace, but a vote to Brexit tars the whole country with that brush.

However, I totally get that the rhetoric of the Brexit camp has tried to leverage a kind of class revolt. I fear that it has been a little too successful at doing that.

 

Tags: #europe #politics

This is a story about national identity…

I will never be accepted in my place of birth, because I can’t speak Welsh, I only lived in Wales for the first few months of my life, and I have English parents. I will never be accepted as a Yorkshireman like my Dad, or a Lancashire lass like my Mum, because I’ve never lived in the North of England, and I have a posh Home Counties accent. I will always be a Grockle (tourist) in Dorset, because I wasn’t born there, just as I will always be a ‘blow-in‘ in London, because I wasn’t born within the sound of the Bow Bells.

So, I find all this talk of British national identity a bit laughable. This talk of a UK Independence Day, and “take our country back” is a joke. If you were to look at my passport, you might think I’m descended from Gauls, given that I was born in Wales where some of the oldest ethnic inhabitants lived… who perhaps escaped genetic mixing with Vikings, Saxons, Romans, Normans… but we know that’s ridiculous.

The thing I like about London is that most people don’t care who you are or where you’ve come from. It’s a fairly meritocratic place where you can seek your fortune without being too held back by too many prejudices. It’s a big enough place that any mishaps and misdemeanours can be overlooked.

I hate small-minded localism. I hate that “you’re not from round these parts, are you?” idiocy… like it really matters where the hell you’re from. I hate people who aspire towards some kind of backwards step, to a time when we lived in tiny villages and hamlets, in pockets of blissful ignorance. It’s a nice fantasy, but it’s never going to be a reality.

I’ve been that immigrant kid, bulking up a classroom that’s already full. I’ve been in the minority, with a different skin tone from all the others in the classroom. I’ve been in the family that talks in their mother tongue, whilst living in a community that doesn’t speak our language, and not observing local customs.

I know that while things are economically prosperous, there is joy in welcoming people of other cultures into our communities. There is novelty in observing and interacting with the outsider, and exploring the interesting differences between each other.

But when things turn sour and you’re afraid for your job and you can’t afford a house, and you start feeling pretty hard-done-by, it’s natural to start picking on the odd-one-out. We’re programmed to weed out the members of a herd that are different. As predators we look for the weak, the elderly, the young. As asexual beasts, we look for those who are most genetically normal, and reject the oddballs who might have undesirable mutations. We want those who share our genetic material – those who look the same as us – to survive at the expense of those who look different, who probably aren’t part of our extended family, and therefore share our genes.

I get it. I understand this “look after our own” thing from the point of view of the selfish genes. There is no altruism, when push comes to shove and we feel threatened. And we feel really threatened at the moment. Housing, education, jobs, transport, healthcare, the economy… everything is screwed.

But you know what? You know who’s really pushing you around? You know why you really feel threatened? It’s because London is disproportionately represented. There’s this little microcosm of politicians, lawyers, accountants, consultants and other highly paid professionals, who pretty much decide the fate of the rest of the country… not some bureaucrats in Brussels. You think the EU is why we have such a ridiculously financial-services centric economy? Is it fuck.

I know that in London I’m going to have the best of everything. All the tax breaks are going to go in my favour. All the infrastructure investment is going to be for me. All the political attention is going to be focussed on my concerns.

Yes, housing is a massive issue in London, but it’s going to get addressed. Nobody dare let the concern of the City worker go overlooked, lest our precious position as a major centre for floatations, international litigation and the headquartering of some of the world’s largest enterprises, be threatened.

However, 5 out of 6 people in the UK are not well represented, because we are so London centric. Do you think anybody much cares about the NEET (Not in Education, Employment or Training) on some God-awful sinkhole estate on the outskirts of a depressed Northern town, who is pissed off about their lot in life? Of course not, because they’re neither economically nor politically active.

In actual fact, the tracksuit-clad pasty white housing estate resident, who drinks too much, smokes too much and abuses drugs, whilst having too many children that they can’t afford to raise, is perhaps far more representative of the average citizen of the United Kingdom, than the suit-wearing, briefcase carrying City worker, with their well remunerated job in the service sector.

Yes, it’s a liberal cliché to wring my hands with worry about the great unwashed masses. The voiceless angry mob outside London, who are in socioeconomic groups that mean that not even the advertisers care much about them, let alone the policy makers. However, something has captured the imagination of a much broader spectrum of British society, in this EU referendum.

Just as the killing of Mark Duggan was the catalyst for rioting in Tottenham, then in Croydon, and indeed all over the UK, it’s clear to see that the motive for the vast majority of the rioting and looting was not to do with police action and race issues at all. It only took a trigger, for a wave of violence, vandalism, looting and rioting to be unleashed. People who would never think of running for Parliament or lobbying their local MP were literally voting with their feet, as they kicked in the windows of their local consumer goods vendor, and helped themselves to the merchandise.

I want London to feel as close to Berlin or Paris, as it is to Newcastle or Swansea. I want Europe to be united, but we are ignoring the fact that London feels very different from depressed towns and cities across the United Kingdom that are severely economically distressed, and politically ignored.

London cares more what the leaders of fellow European nations have to say, than what the mayors of other major cities do. What, for example, is the position of Liverpool in the whole Brexit/Remain debate? Nobody cares, in the newspapers that are written by London-dwelling journalists, nor in the benches of a parliament that sits in Westminster.

Distancing ourselves from Europe is the wrong thing to do. Bringing the rest of the UK into the decision-making that centres almost exclusively on London and financial services, is the right thing to do.

 

Tags: #europe #politics